December 29th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Definitely a great slate of games coming up as we only have eleven great games left before this NFL season is over (of course I don’t count the Pro-Bowl which is a joke). Strangely I find myself liking all chalk this week (which is odd as I usually prefer Dogs) but the quality of wildcard teams this year may be the best we have ever seen when compared to the quality of division winners. Amazingly the combined records of the 4 wildcards is 43-20-1 compared to 38-26 from the division winners without a bye combined. I know it’ll never happen but I’d love the NFL to consider forcing division winners to qualify for something like 10 wins, and if not throw them into the wildcard bin. As much as I don’t root for the Patriots, its really a shame they are sitting at home with an 11-5 record whereas the Chargers (8-8) and Cardinals (9-7) barely don’t have losing records. The NFL still has a much better system than every other sport (except maybe for NCAA Basketball as March Madness is the greatest) so its not a big deal but definitely bugs me to see the best teams not in the hunt.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) At Arizona Cardinals — Saturday January 3rd 4:30 PM Eastern
Despite the inexperience at QB and the deadly passing attack of the Cardinals I like Atlanta here because their defense is so much better than the Cards. Throw in Michael Turner who I see as an elite runner, especially against weaker defenses this season, and I think this game could be a blow out if Warner and Fitzgerald aren’t on top of their games.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) At San Diego Chargers — Saturday January 3rd 8 PM Eastern
As good as the Chargers offense looked last night we have to remember they were facing the vaunted Broncos “defense” which was one of the most reliably bad units all year long (30th in the NFL). I do see this game being the most exciting of the weekend as defense takes a back seat to a Peyton Manning/Philip Rivers shoot out. I also think LT has a decent game, but in the end the Colts will take it down in dramatic fashion, hopefully thanks to another coaching blunder by one of my faves Norv Turner.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) At Miami Dolphins — Sunday January 4th 1 PM Eastern
First I have to give BIll Parcells major props as I thought he was insane going to Miami where I saw at least a few years of work to get them into a winning season let alone winning their division and getting a #3 seed in the AFC. It was quite an amazing season but I fear it will end harshly for Fins fans as the Ravens D is probably the most dominating playing this weekend and the Ravens offense has slowly gotten better and better over the year. I expect to see a lot from Parcells and his coaching staff as they pull out all the stops in the bag of tricks but defense, a strong running game, and a solid rookie QB not making many errors is a recipe for the Ravens turning the fins into tuna meat next Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) At Minnesota Vikings — Sunday January 4th 4:30 PM Eastern
Its very hard for me to pick a team I remember watching struggle in Cincy just a few weeks ago as they nearly lost to the lowly Bengals, but after seeing them demolish the Cowboys last week its hard to go against them. While I do love Adrian Peterson and think he has a great game, I see the Eagles taking advantage of Tavaris Jackson and I also see Peterson fumbling the ball in an important game scenario. While Peterson had a great year he has of late put the ball on the turf a few too many times and I think the real star that will show up this game will be #36 Brian Westbrook whose versatility combined with an aggresive Philly defense will take this game giving the Vikes the strong signal that they need to upgrade at QB in the off season (Won’t Michael Vick be out of prison by next season? Hmmm)
December 24th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Definitely a lot of great games this week as so many teams are still in the hunt and unfortunately some very good teams will be left out while some very weak divisions are letting some teams into the playoffs that really don’t deserve it (ahem, Cardinals). I would be really pissed if I were a Cowboys or Eagles fan left out as one of those two pretty good teams will be out while possibly an 8-8 Cardinal team will be playing a home game on Wildcard Weekend. The Broncos/Chargers also have played pretty poorly for one of them to sneak in as the Dolphins or Patriots might be sitting at home next with with a better win loss record. Not the end of the world but something that bothers me as we enter this final week of the regular season. The good news is that for the most part the teams that deserve to be there are going to be and most of these deserving bubble teams control their own destiny this week as we have a great slate of games and playoff seed scenarios:
Oakland Raiders (+13) At Tampa Bay Buccaneers — The Bucs need the Cowboys to fall to the Eagles in order to get in and I expect them to beat the Raiders pretty handily however I see the Raiders covering this very large spread. The Raiders are pretty bad but the Bucs haven’t been that dominating as of late and won’t cover this near 2 touchdown spread.
New York Giants (+6.5) At Minnesota Vikings – I do like the Vikings to win here as they need this win to clinch the division and the Giants don’t need this win at all, however 6.5 points is way too much as I know Coughlin will play his starters much longer than he should as he did last year. Only x-facter is if Adrian Peterson goes nuts as he sometimes does, and if that happens the Vikes will blow out the Giants late in the game as I’d expect Coughlin pulls some starters as they do have a bye next week in the first round of the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) At Philadelphia Eagles — The last time these two teams played this season the Cowboys won 41-37 in one of the most exciting games of the season. I expect the exact opposite in Philly as nasty weather and cold weather affect both teams and I see a defensive struggle where one clutch play will decide the outcome. Another minus for those liking the chalk, if the Bucs win early which is very likely the Eagles may be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs before this afternoon game even begins…
Denver Broncos (+8) At San Diego Chargers — Even without Hochuli I see the Broncos easily covering here as I see this game being very high scoring but close til the end however I do see the Chargers winning and sneaking into the playoffs as the Broncos should have put this playoff race away weeks ago. The Broncos now deserve to get left out as this game totally reminds everyone of Hochuli-gate.
And just in case you are wondering I am now 19-18-1 with my picks going into the final week so I’d definitely take my picks with a grain of salt but I’m feeling pretty lucky going into the playoffs as I turned around my losing streak mid-season and hope to close the season out on the plus side.
December 17th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
The NFL drama is definitely heating up as playoff teams are locking up their first round byes and vying for home field advantage, meanwhile the wildcard scenarios continue to make things more and more interesting as some very good teams will be left out this year it appears. The Cowboys have the tough task of having to beat the Ravens this week and then the Eagles next week (after just defeating the #1 seed Giants last week). The Romo-Witten-TO love triangle is making it even more interesting and I deeply hope they pull out the wildcard as then we can throw Jessica Simpson into the mix again and truly make it a drama on and off the field. The Eagles also have a tough task of eliminating the Skins and beating the Cowboys and then hoping the Falcons or Bucs fail. The Bucs will play the Chargers and Raiders, the Falcons still will face the Vikes and the Rams.
Probably the most exciting game this week however will be the Panthers V. Giants Sunday Night as the winner will have home field throughout the playoffs on top of their first round bye. As much as I hate to say it I am done going against the Giants and am taking the chalk this Sunday Night (-3) as I think they lock in their bid at home in an exciting game against the Panthers. I also like the Jags (+6) against the Colts this Thursday night and I like the Ravens (+4) on Saturday against the Cowboys. I don’t think either team wins but I do think they cover as I expect close games in all three.
In the AFC things are a little more solidified but we do have the Steelers and Titans facing each other as the #1 seed in the AFC is still up in the air. We also have the Pats, Jets, & Fins all tied to win their division and get a home game on Wildcard Weekend. The Broncos, despite their lackluster record, is very close to knocking out the Chargers for good as they need to win or tie or need the Chargers to lose or tie in the next two weeks. The Colts and Ravens look pretty solid in the last two wildcard slots but will have to watch for AFC East losers as they hope to land a wildcard slot as a consolation prize to losing their division. Definitely many great games and scenarios to follow as most of our fantasy teams are finished. I have one team left going for the championship this year and am riding on the backs of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Turner this week. I also have a 3rd place game that’s worth a decent amount of prize winnings so I have 2 fantasy teams active this week even though only one is still capable of bringing home the trophy.
Quarterback Rankings Week 16
1. Drew Brees At Detroit Lions
2. Peyton Manning At Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Kurt Warner At New England Patriots
4. Jay Cutler Vs. Buffalo Bills
5. Donovan McNabb At Washington Redskins
6. Matt Cassel Vs. Arizona Cardinals
7. Matt Schaub At Oakland Raiders
8. Philip Rivers At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. Aaron Rodgers At Chicago Bears
10. Tony Romo Vs. Baltimore Ravens
11. Tyler Thigpen Vs. Miami Dolphins
12. Ben Roethlisberger At Tennessee Titans
Running Back Rankings Week 16
1. Adrian Peterson Vs. Atlanta Falcons
2. Brian Westbrook At Washington Redskins
3. Marshawn Lynch At Denver Broncos
4. Steve Slaton At Oakland Raiders
5. Matt Forte Vs. Green Bay Packers
6. Pierre Thomas At Detroit Lions
7. Thomas Jones At Seattle Seahawks
8. Maurice Jones Drew Vs. Indianapolis Colts
9. DeAngelo Williams At New York Giants
10. Steven Jackson Vs. San Francisco 49ers
11. Michael Turner At Minnesota Vikings
12. Ryan Grant At Chicago Bears
13. Ladanian Tomlinson At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Brandon Jacobs Vs. Carolina Panthers
15. Kevin Smith Vs. New Orleans Saints
16. Sammy Morris Vs. Arizona Cardinals
17. Deshaun Foster At St. Louis Rams
18. Clinton Portis Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
19. Chris Johnson Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
20. Willie Parker At Tennessee Titans
21. Ronnie Brown At Kansas City Chiefs
22. Cedric Benson At Cleveland Browns
23. Larry Johnson Vs. Miami Dolphins
24. Joseph Addai At Jacksonville Jaguars (questionable to play)
25. Tashard Choice Vs. Baltimore Ravens
Wide Receiver Rankings Week 16
1. Andre Johnson At Oakland Raiders
2. Calvin Johnson Vs. New Orleans Saints
3. Larry Fitzgerald At New England Patriots
4. Roddy White At Minnesota Vikings
5. Anquan Boldin At New England Patriots
6. Randy Moss Vs. Arizona Cardinals
7. Antonio Bryant Vs. San Diego Chargers
8. Brandon Marshall Vs. Buffalo Bills
9. Marques Colston At Detroit Lions
10. Steve Smith At New York Giants
11. Dwayne Bowe Vs. Miami Dolphins
12. Reggie Wayne At Jacksonville Jaguars
13. Wes Welker Vs. Arizona Cardinals
14. Bernard Berrian Vs. Atlanta Falcons
15. Santonio Holmes At Tennessee Titans
16. Terrell Owens Vs. Baltimore Ravens
17. Lance Moore At Detroit Lions
18. Hines Ward At Tennessee Titans
19. Donald Driver At Chicago Bears
20. Kevin Walter At Oakland Raiders
21. Vincent Jackson At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22. Steve Breaston At New England Patriots
23. Eddie Royal Vs. Buffalo Bills
24. DeSean “Premature Celebration” Jackson At Washington Redskins
25. TJ Houshmandzedah/Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson At Cleveland Browns
Tight End Rankings Week 16
1. Tony Gonzalez Vs. Miami Dolphins
2. Dallas Clark At Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Antonio Gates At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Owen Daniels At Oakland Raiders
5. Jason Witten Vs. Baltimore Ravens
6. John Carlson Vs. New York Jets
7. Chris Cooley Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
8. Jeremy Shockey At Detroit Lions
9. Tony Scheffler Vs. Buffalo Bills
10. Greg Olsen Vs. Green Bay Packers
11. Vernon Davis At St. Louis Rams
12. Kevin Boss Vs. Carolina Panthers
Defense/Special Teams Week 16
1. Pittsburgh Steelers At Tennessee Titans
2. Philadelphia Eagles At Washington Redskins
3. Dallas Cowboys Vs. Baltimore Ravens
4. New York Giants Vs. Carolina Panthers
5. Baltimore Ravens At Dallas Cowboys
6. New York Jets At Seattle Seahawks
7. Minnesota Vikings Vs. Atlanta Falcons
8. Tennessee Titans Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. New England Patriots Vs. Arizona Cardinals
10. Chicago Bears Vs. Green Bay Packers
11. Carolina Panthers At New York Giants
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. San Diego Chargers
December 10th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Despite my terrible Lions pick 2 weeks ago I am happy my most recent picks have turned the momentum and now have me back to .500 (17-17) and I hope to get some steam going into the playoffs. I’m also happy Westbrook has some momentum as he leads one of my playoff teams one step closer to a fantasy Superbowl. All four of my fantasy teams made it to the playoffs this season but two have already made early exits thanks to very clutch bad performances from Antonio Gates and Marshawn Lynch. Adrian Peterson also was a disappointment last week against the Lions but played well. I was hoping for a new rushing record being broken but I can’t fault All Day for my losses as I felt he had a good game despite not finding the end zone.
So as we get another great Thursday Night match up I find I have no players that matter in either game but I do like the Saints (+3) against the Bears despite this dome team being forced to play in the Windy City. Compared to last week the cold will be tame this week and the Bears are still without Vasher their best cover corner. I like Bree’s chances against the Bears secondary and expect the Saints to get some revenge on the Bears who resoundingly knocked them out of the playoffs a few years back. The Bears looked very good against the Jags but David Garrard was terrible and I expect much more from Drew this week in what I see to be a tough, hard-fought and close game but one where the Saints slimly defeat the Bears.
Quarterback Rankings Week 15
1. Peyton Manning Vs. Detroit Lions
2. Kurt Warner Vs. Minnesota Vikings
3. Drew Brees At Chicago Bears
4. Aaron Rodgers At Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Donovan McNabb Vs. Cleveland Browns
6. Jay Cutler At Carolina Panthers
7. Philip Rivers At Kansas City Chiefs
8. Matt Cassel At Oakland Raiders
9. Tony Romo Vs. New York Giants
10. Matt Schaub Vs. Tennessee Titans
11. Tyler Thigpen Vs. San Diego Chargers
12. Shaun Hill At Miami Dolphins
Running Back Rankings Week 15
1. Brian Westbrook Vs. Cleveland Browns
2. Adrian Peterson At Arizona Cardinals
3. DeAngelo Williams Vs. Denver Broncos
4. Chris Johnson At Houston Texans
5. Matt Forte Vs. New Orleans Saints
6. Ladanian Tomlinson At Kansas City Chiefs
7. Stephen Jackson Vs. Seattle Seahawks
8. Thomas Jones Vs. Buffalo Bills
9. Maurice Jones Drew Vs. Green Bay Packers
10. Michael Turner Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. Ryan Grant At Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Brandon Jacobs At Dallas Cowboys
13. Reggie Bush/Pierre Thomas At Chicago Bears
14. Steve Slaton Vs. Tennessee Titans
15. Marion Barber Vs. New York Giants (Questionable to play)
16. Joseph Addai Vs. Detroit Lions
17. Lendale White At Houston Texans
18. Jonathon Stewart Vs. Denver Broncos
19. Ronnie Brown Vs. San Francisco 49ers
20. Marshawn Lynch At New York Jets
21. Larry Johnson Vs. San Diego Chargers
22. Sammy Morris At Oakland Raiders
23. Derrick Ward At Dallas Cowboys
24. Kevin Smith At Indianapolis Colts
Wide Receiver Rankings Week 15
1. Steve Smith Vs. Denver Broncos
2. Larry Fitzgerald Vs. Minnesota Vikings
3. Anquan Boldin Vs. Minnesota Vikings
4. Brandon Marshall At Carolina Panthers
5. Andre Johnson Vs. Tennessee Titans
6. Calvin Johnson At Indianapolis Colts
7. Roddy White Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Greg Jennings At Jacksonville Jaguars
9. Dwayne Bowe Vs. San Diego Chargers
10. Terrell Owens Vs. New York Giants
11. Reggie Wayne Vs. Detroit Lions
12. Randy Moss At Oakland Raiders
13. Lee Evans At New York Jets
14. Marques Colston At Chicago Bears
15. Santana Moss At Cincinnati Bengals
16. Wes Welker At Oakland Raiders
17. Lance Moore At Chicago Bears
18. DeSean “Premature Celebration” Jackson Vs. Cleveland Browns
19. Bernard Berrian At Arizona Cardinals
20. Marvin Harrison Vs. Detroit Lions
21. Eddie Royal At Carolina Panthers
22. Deion Branch At St. Louis Rams
23. Vincent Jackson At Kansas City Chiefs
24. Donald Driver At Jacksonville Jaguars
Tight End Rankings Week 15
1. Tony Gonzalez Vs. San Diego Chargers
2. Dallas Clark Vs. Detroit Lions
3. Antonio Gates At Kansas City Chiefs
4. Jason Witten Vs. New York Giants
5. John Carlson At St. Louis Rams
6. Tony Scheffler At Carolina Panthers
7. Dustin Keller Vs. Buffalo Bills
8. Heath Miller At Baltimore Ravens
9. Owen Daniels Vs. Tennessee Titans
10. Chris Cooley At Cincinnati Bengals
11. Donald Lee At Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Greg Olsen Vs. New Orleans Saints
Defense/Special Teams Week 15
1. Pittsburgh Steelers At Baltimore Ravens
2. Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Cleveland Browns
3. Indianapolis Colts Vs. Detroit Lions
4. New York Giants At Dallas Cowboys
5. Baltimore Ravens Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Tennessee Titans At Houston Texans
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Atlanta Falcons
8. New York Jets Vs. Buffalo Bills
9. New England Patriots At Oakland Raiders
10. Green Bay Packers At Jacksonville Jaguars
11. Minnesota Vikings At Arizona Cardinals
12. Chicago Bears Vs. New Orleans Saints
November 26th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
With 3 Thanksgiving games this sets up to be a crazy and fun week as this is the last week of the fantasy season is also coming to a close and hopefully you still have a shot at the playoffs or even better a shot at a first round playoff bye. With myself still slumping in my picks (15-16 overall this year) I’m going for the trifecta tomorrow as I figure its as good a way as any to try and break out of my slump and get some momentum for the playoffs.
As crazy as it may sound I like The Lions (+11) tomorrow in the early game as I think they play the hardest they have all year to avoid being embarrassed in front of the nation. Its hard for me to predict the upset win but the Titans D hasn’t been as great as it was early in the year and their offense is flawed. Cullepepper & Calvin Johnson seem to be liking their new connection and seem to be a nice duo if you are the fantasy owner of Johnson.
With the Cowboys I’m taking the chalk (-12.5) as I don’t think anyone will be able to stop TO and Romo as they try to duplicate last week’s performance. Its a lot of points but the Seahawks haven’t been the most impressive this year and the Cowboys now need every win and point the rest of this year to ensure a wildcard slot into the playoffs.
I also like the Eagles (-3) for the tripleheader as its impossible for McNabb to screw up as bad as last week and I like the Eagles D to pressure Warner and slow down the Cards potent passing attack. Westbrook is listed as questionable which means if I bench him he’ll run like he just took a hit of crack at the stadium parking lot and score 4 TD’s. While I’m starting Westbrook I still like the Eagle’s chances in a high scoring, high flying, exciting game.
Quarterback Rankings Week 13
1. Peyton Manning At Cleveland Browns
2. Tony Romo Vs. Seattle Seahawks
3. Jay Cutler At New York Jets
4. Brett Favre Vs. Denver Broncos
5. Philip River Vs. Atlanta Falcons
6. Drew Brees At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7. Tyler Thigpen At Oakland Raiders
8. Donovan McNabb Vs. Arizona Cardinals
9. Kurt Warner At Philadelphia Eagles
10. Aaron Rodgers Vs. Carolina Panthers
11. Ben Roethlisberger At New England Patriots
12. Chad Pennington At St. Louis Rams
Running Back Rankings Week 13
1. Joseph Addai At Cleveland Browns
2. Adrian Peterson Vs. Chicago Bears
3. Marshawn Lynch Vs. San Francisco 49ers
4. Ladanian Tomlinson Vs. Atlanta Falcons
5. Thomas Jones Vs. Denver Broncos
6. Marion Barber Vs. Seattle Seahawks
7. Larry Johnson At Oakland Raiders
8. Michael Turner At San Diego Chargers
9. Steve Slaton Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
10. DeAngelo Williams At Green Bay Packers
11. Ronnie Brown At St. Louis Rams
12. Clinton Portis Vs. New York Giants
13. Chris Johnson/Lendale White At Detroit Lions
14. Darren McFadden/Justin Fargas Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
15. Ryan Grant Vs. Carolina Panthers
16. Frank Gore At Buffalo Bills
17. Maurice Jones Drew At Houston Texans
18. Brian Westbrook Vs. Arizona Cardinals
19. Jamal Lewis Vs. Indianapolis Colts
20. Mewelde Moore At New England Patriots
21. Warrick Dunn Vs. New Orleans Saints
22. Matt Forte At Minnesota Vikings
23. Brandon Jacobs At Washington Redskins
24. Leron McClain/Willis McGahee At Cincinnati Bengals
Wide Receiver Rankings Week 13
1. Terrell Owens Vs. Seattle Seahawks
2. Reggie Wayne At Cleveland Browns
3. Andre Johnson Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Anquan Boldin At Philadelhia Eagles
5. Calvin Johnson Vs. Tennessee Titans
6. Larry Fitzgerald At Philadelphia Eagles
7. Greg Jennings Vs. Carolina Panthers
8. Brandon Marshall At New York Jets
9. Lee Evans Vs. San Francisco 49ers
10. Randy Moss Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
11. Steve Smith At Green Bay Packers
12. Wes Welker Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Lance Moore At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Bernard Berrian Vs. Chicago Bears
15. Dwayne Bowe At Oakland Raiders
16. Hines Ward At New England Patriots
17. Jerricho Cotchery Vs. Denver Broncos
18. Ted Ginn Jr. At St. Louis Rams
19. Marques Colston At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20. Laveranues Coles Vs. Denver Broncos
21. Vincent Jackson Vs. Atlanta Falcons
22. TJ Houshmandzedah Vs. Baltimore Ravens
23. DeSean Jackson Vs. Arizona Cardinals
24. Braylon Edwards Vs. Indianapolis Colts
Tight End Rankings Week 13
1. Dallas Clark At Cleveland Browns
2. Tony Gonzalez At Oakland Raiders
3. Dustin Keller Vs. Denver Broncos
4. Antonio Gates Vs. Atlanta Falcons
5. Owen Daniels Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Kellen Winslow Vs. Indianapolis Colts
7. Greg Olsen At Minnesota Vikings
8. Bo Scaife At Detroit Lions
9. Tony Scheffler At New York Jets
10. Jason Witten Vs. Seattle Seahawks
11. Kevin Boss At Washington Redskins
12. Jerramy Stevens Vs. New Orleans Saints
Defense/Special Teams Week 13
1. Baltimore Ravens At Cincinnati Bengals
2. Tennessee Titans At Detroit Lions
3. New York Giants At Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys Vs. Seattle Seahawks
5. Pittsburgh Steelers At New England Patriots
6. Minnesota Vikings Vs. Chicago Bears
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. New Orleans Saints
8. Miami Dolphins At St. Louis Rams
9. Chicago Bears At Minnesota Vikings
10. Green Bay Packers Vs. Carolina Panthers
11. New England Patriots Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Buffalo Bills Vs. San Francisco 49ers
Good luck this week & have a great Thanksgiving everyone.
November 13th, 2008 at 11:04 am
This week I’m focusing on tonight’s game (Jets/Pats) and also the Broncos/Falcons game as the machine let me down last week picking the Browns so I am going back to my own instincts to see if my bad luck has run out. With tonight’s game I like the Patriots -3 as Matt Cassel has slowly become a better quarterback every week and most importantly does test the opposing D downfield which is a must for the Pats offense to work. Yes Cassel can’t hit Moss the way Brady did but they are trying and it opens up the rest of the field for the offense when the D has to respect the deep ball and Moss. When the Pats weren’t throwing it deep in the 1st half of the season they might as well have not been playing with Moss out there. And without Brady or Moss that offense is worse than mediocre. I’m also counting on the hatefest between Belichick and the Mangenius for the Pats to be very ready this game and also wanting to run up the score if possible. While the Jets D is not terrible, its definitely not very good so even with a famous favre back door cover attempt I like my chances tonight.
With the Falcons/Broncos I am taking the Over 51, not just because I like both offenses, but because I love both of these defenses (especially in consideration of an over). The Broncos “D” allows 27.9 points per game and gives up nearly 390 yards per game putting them in the lowest 3 in the NFL. Add in that Champ Bailey still has a pulled groin and very likely will miss another game and I see another bottom 3 performance coming from them. The Falcons, while better, are not that much better as they average giving up just under 20 points a game and rank 23rd in the league in yards given up per game. The Falcons are at home which is a big plus for them as they play much better at home however Jay Cutler is back on fire like he was at the beginning of the year and on top of that his top 3 running backs are out with injury. Last game the fullback and Mike Shanahan himself took turns playing running back as Cutler was forced to throw for over 400 yards for them to eake out a win in that defensive battle in Cleveland (34-30). While I don’t expect this game to be that high scoring I like the over here as I’m sure the Broncos D won’t let me down and my fate will rely on Cutler’s ability to perform like last week to cover that pretty high over. Either way should be an exciting game and an exciting week as the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner and the real playoffs right after that.
Quarterback Rankings Week 11
1. Jay Cutler At Atlanta Falcons
2. Peyton Manning Vs. Houston Texans
3. Drew Brees At Kansas City Chiefs
4. Kurt Warner At Seattle Seahawks
5. Tony Romo At Washington Redskins
6. Jake Delhomme Vs. Detroit Lions
7. Matt Ryan Vs. Denver Broncos
8. Donovan McNabb At Cincinnati Bengals
9. Chad Pennington Vs. Oakland Raiders
10. Tyler Thigpen Vs. New Orleans Saints
11. Brett Favre At New England Patriots
12. Philip Rivers At Pittsburgh Steelers
It feels wrong to rank a Jay Cutler above a Peyton Manning but considering Cutler has no running backs (3 top backs out with injury) and very possibly no Champ Bailey again (making a bad defense even worse) I see more upside in Cutler this week despite both of them playing pretty light defenses. Tony Romo is definitely the wildcard to watch this week though as I suspect he could have played 4 weeks ago but the Cowboys wanted to play it safe. It looks like Romo still will not be 100% but still a good play I’d assume until we see different. It would not shock me at all to see Romo throw for 300+ and a few scores but I’d like to see how he throws before ranking him any higher.
Running Back Rankings Week 11
1. Brian Westbrook At Cincinnati Bengals
2. Frank Gore Vs. St. Louis Rams
3. Michael Turner Vs. Denver Broncos
4. Marion Barber Ar Washington Redskins
5. Marshawn Lynch Vs. Cleveland Browns
6. Adrian Peterson At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7. Chris Johnson At Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Ladanian Tomlinson At Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Matt Forte At Green Bay Packers
10. Steve Slaton At Indianapolis Colts
11. DeAngelo Williams/Jonathon Stewart Vs. Detroit Lions
12. Ronnie Brown Vs. Oakland Raiders
13. Joseph Addai Vs. Houston Texans
14. Larry Johnson Vs. New Orleans Saints
15. Reggie Bush/Deuce McAlister At Kansas City Chiefs
16. Clinton Portis Vs. Dallas Cowboys
17. Willie Parker Vs. San Diego Chargers
18. Tim Hightower At Seattle Seahawks
19. Brandon Jacobs Vs. Baltimore Ravens
20. Jamal Lewis At Buffalo Bills
21. Maurice Jones-Drew Vs. Tennessee Titans
22. Ryan Grant Vs. Chicago Bears
23. Thomas Jones At New England Patriots
24. Lendale White At Jacksonville Jaguars
Some fantasy experts differ with me this week but I still favor the reliable staple running back against a terrible match than a questionable back against an easier match up. Yes I’m sure Adrian Peterson has a tougher time against the Bucs than most of his opponents but he can still have a good to great game. I’d much rather lose starting Peterson than reaching on a Slaton or a Hightower who both could have great games but also could have very quiet games as they somewhat frequently do. It may be a mistake but I’m starting Peterson over McGahee & Jonathon Stewart this week on one of my teams as I think Peterson is much more likely even against the Bucs to have a better game than my 2 reserve backs.
Wide Receiver Rankings Week 11
1. Brandon Marshall At Atlanta Falcons
2. Steve Smith Vs. Detroit Lions
3. Reggie Wayne Vs. Houston Texans
4. Anquan Boldin At Seattle Seahawks
5. Larry Fitzgerald At. Seattle Seahawks
6. Roddy White Vs. Denver Broncos
7. Terrell Owens At Washington Redskins
8. Santana Moss Vs. Dallas Cowboys
9. Marques Colston At Kansas City Chiefs
10. Cavin Johnson At Carolina Panthers
11. Dwayne Bowe Vs. New Orleans Saints
12. Randy Moss Vs. New York Jets
13. Greg Jennings Vs. Chicago Bears
14. Eddie Royal At Atlanta Falcons
15. Hines Ward Vs. San Diego Chargers
16. Lee Evans Vs. Cleveland Browns
17. Plaxico Burress Vs. Baltimore Ravens
18. Ted Ginn Jr. Vs. Oakland Raiders
19. Roy Williams At Washington Redskins
20. Wes Welker Vs. New York Jets
21. Laveranues Coles At New England Patriots
22. Bernard Berrian At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23. DeSean “Premature Celebration” Jackson
24. Marvin Harrison Wide Receivers Vs. Houston Texans
Not much commentary for me on here as I have had trouble with my receiver corps all year on my teams (meaning the WR’s on my bench have the propensity for the big game).
Tight End Rankings Week 11
1. Antonio Gates At Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Tony Gonzalez Vs. New Orleans Saints
3. Jason Witten At Washington Redskins
4. Kellen Winslow At Buffalo Bills
5. Dallas Clark Vs. Houston Texans
6. Tony Scheffler At Atlanta Falcons
7. Chris Cooley Vs. Dallas Cowboys
8. Owen Daniels At Indianapolis Colts
9. Dustin Keller At New England Patriots
10. Bo Scaife At Jacksonville Jaguars
11. Visanthe Shiancoe At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12. Anthony Fasano Vs. Oakland Raiders
It will be interesting to see if Witt’s stats come back now that it looks like Tony Romo is back in the starting lineup though not 100%. I expect a decent game from Witt but there are many good match ups for some solid tight ends this week as we have finally finished wading through the bye weeks where the tight end position always seemed the toughest to fill with a quality spot starter during a bye. I am very glad the bye weeks are finished.
Defense/Special Teams Week 11
1. Carolina Panthers Vs. Detroit Lions
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Minnesota Vikings
3. Miami Dolphins Vs. Oakland Raiders
4. Tennessee Titans At Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Philadelphia Eagles At Cincinnati Bengals
6. New York Giants Vs. Baltimore Ravens
7. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. San Diego Chargers
8. Green Bay Packers Vs. Chicago Bears
9. New York Giants Vs. Baltimore Ravens
10. New England Patriots Vs. New York Jets
11. Baltimore Ravens At New York Giants
12. Chicago Bears At Green Bay Packers.
If Kyle Orton does play I upgrade the Bears D (much easier to play good D when you control the time of possession) and downgrade the Packer’s D as Orton has shown us he’s the real deal this year. If Orton can’t go (which is what I expect as he was due to miss a month according to most reports last week) and Turnoverasaurus Rex is starting again I think the Pack D is in for a great fantasy game and 50/50 for another pick six gift from Rex.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
How about those Lions? Amazingly the Failsafe Machine once again proved to be worth much more than I paid for it as it predicted a Lions cover and has me working out of my prior slump (I’m 15-13 now for the year). For a few minutes I thought the Lions might even win that game which again shows me why the Machine is so successful as it has no idea how terrible the Lions are and I think only Lion fans in denial would ever touch that 12.5 point spread. So with the Machine starting out this year so successful I’m going with the machine again to choose the play for tonight’s game of the Browns & Broncos. I’m so glad to have Thursday Night Football as not only is it another day of the week we can watch football but it also means the bye weeks are nearing an end and the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner only to be followed by the NFL playoffs. So without any further to do I will check with the machine for tonights cover and it is….Heads, the Browns at -3. They are at home so it is possible but will most likely hinge on Brady Quinn’s ability to outscore Jay Cutler’s crew. Should be an interesting game if you like offense tonight as these 2 D’s have to be in the bottom 5 making all these offensive fantasy players good starts this week although again Brady Quinn has to factor heavily into your choices. He’s definitely the wild card of this game as he makes his NFL debut tonight.
The following teams are on bye this week: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins
Quarterback Rankings Week 10
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1. Drew Brees At Atlanta Falcons
2. Kurt Warner Vs. San Francisco 49ers
3. Jay Cutler At Cleveland Browns
4. Peyton Manning At Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Aaron Rodgers At Minnesota Vikings
6. Philip Rivers Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
7. Jake Delhomme At Oakland Raiders
8. Brett Favre Vs. St. Louis Rams
9. Donovan McNabb Vs. New York Giants
10. Eli Manning At Philadelphia Eagles
11. Chad Pennington Vs. Seattle Seahawks
12. Matt Ryan Vs. New Orleans Saints
13. Brady Quinn Vs. Denver Broncos
If you are a gambler I love Brady Quinn Thursday night as the Browns have some talent and the Broncos D is terrible and NO Champ Bailey again (injury). I am definitely a minority in this pick but I like his upside unless I have a stud QB starting this week. Brees, Warner, & Cutler have great match ups and should perform big. After that I see some of those top 12 struggling due to good defensive play but I do however predict a big game from Favre this week. Instinstively I feel like he is due for a big game and the Rams D has been better but is still not very good under Haslett.
Running Back Rankings Week 10
1. Ladanian Tomlinson Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Brian Westbrook Vs. New York Giants
3. Adrian Peterson Vs. Green Bay Packers
4. Frank Gore At Arizona Cardinals
5. Michael Turner Vs. New Orleans Saints
6. Willie Parker Vs. Indianapolis Colts
7. Ronnie Brown Vs. Seattle Seahawks
8. Chris Johnson At Chicago Bears
9. Matt Forte Vs. Tennessee Titans
10. Brandon Jacobs At Philadelphia Eagles
11. Maurice Jones-Drew At Detroit Lions
12. Thomas Jones Vs. St Louis Rams
13. Tim Hightower Vs. San Francisco 49ers
14. Jamal Lewis Vs. Denver Broncos
15. Marshawn Lynch At New England Patriots
16. Ray Rice/McClain/McGahee At Houston Texans
17. DeAngelo Williams/Jonathon Stewart At Oakland Raiders
18. Lendale White At Chicago Bears
19. Joseph Addai At Pittsburgh Steelers
20. Ryan Grant Ar Minnesota Vikings
21. Steve Slaton Vs. Baltimore Ravens
22. Kevin Faulk/B. Green-Ellis Vs. Buffalo Bills
23. Ryan Torain At Cleveland Browns
24. Jamaal Charles At San Diego Chargers
This is a huge week for LT owners as they hope his 170 yards and a score against the Saints was not a fluke and he is truly getting healthy now. After the bye he should be even more healthy and everyone is saying he looks great now that his toe injury seems to be nearly 100% gone. Throw in the fact the Chiefs are the worst in the NFL against the run giving up an average of 180+ rush yards a game and LT owners have to be excited. If LT truly is back he should have a devastating fantasy game.
Wide Receiver Rankings Week 10
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1. Steve Smith At Oakland Raiders
2. Brandon Marshall At Cleveland Browns
3. Larry Fitzgerald Vs. San Francisco 49ers
4. Andre Johnson Vs. Baltimore Ravens
5. Anquan Boldin Vs. San Francisco 49ers
6. Greg Jennings At Minnesota Vikings
7. Braylon Edwards Vs. Denver Broncos
8. Calvin Johnson Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
9. Reggie Wayne At Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Lee Evans At New England Patriots
11. Roddy White Vs. New Orleans Saints
12. Bernard Berrian Vs. Green Bay Packers
13. Randy Moss Vs. Buffalo Bills
14. Jerricho Cotchery Vs. St. Louis Rams
15. Plaxico Burress At Philadelphia Eagles
16. Eddie Royal At Cleveland Browns
17. Laveranues Coles Vs. St. Louis Rams
18. Donald Driver At Minnesota Vikings
19. Marques Colston At Atlanta Falcons
20. Vincent Jackson Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
21. Derrick Mason At Houston Texans
22. Matt Jones At Detroit Lions
23. Greg Camarillo Vs. Seattle Seahawks
24. Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes Vs. Indianapolis Colts
25. Donnie Avery/Torry Holt At New York Jets
Tight End Rankings Week 10
1. Antonio Gates Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Kellen Winslow Vs. Denver Broncos
3. Tony Gonzalez At San Diego Chargers
4. Dallas Clark At Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Owen Daniels Vs. Baltimore Ravens
6. Visanthe Shiancoe Vs. Green Bay Packers
7. Anthony Fasano Vs. Seattle Seahawks
8. Kevin Boss At Philadelphia Eagles
9. Bo Scaife At Chicago Bears
10. Jeremy Shockey At Atlanta Falcons
11. LJ Smith Vs. New York Giants
12. John Carlson At Miami Dolphins
Gates should have benefited from his bye week and should be more healed from his nagging injuries that have slowed him this year. Despite his injuries Gates has 5 touchdowns this year but very lackluster yardage numbers from what we are used to from him. I also expect good games from Winslow, Gonzo, & Clark but I am not crazy about the rest of the batch as many have bad match ups and many don’t have the starting QB throwing to them this week.
Defense/Special Teams Week 10
1. Carolina Panthers At Oakland Raiders
2. Tennessee Titans At Chicago Bears
3. Baltimore Ravens At Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars At Detroit Lions
5. Chicago Bears Vs. Tennessee Titans
6. Miami Dolphins Vs. Seattle Seahawks
7. New York Giants At Philadelphia Eagles
8. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Indianapolis Colts
9. San Diego Chargers Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
10. New England Patriots Vs. Buffalo Bills
11. Philadelphia Eagles Vs. New York Giants
12. Minnesota Vikings Vs. Green Bay Packers
If Rex Grossman starts for the Bears (I’ve heard conflicting reports on Orton) In love the Titans defense here as Grossman doesn’t have the nickname Turnoverasaurus Rex for nothing. Grossman played in 8 games in 2007 and had 7 interceptions & 6 fumbles. In 2006 when he was “playing well” he had a QB rating of 73.8 and 20 interceptions and 8 fumbles in 16 games. I can’t find the stats but I would not be surprised if Grossman is high in the history books when it comes to pick sixes as well as I remember seeing a lot of them over the years. The Titans might have a great day if Rex plays and is not on his game.
Of course if Orton starts I see a totally different game (although I’d still start the Titans in most cases anyway).
October 31st, 2008 at 10:13 am
Well I’m definitely changing things up this week as I haven’t been able to pick a winner in what seems like a month to me. I was 12-7 for the year and on fire about a month ago but as you may know I am now dead cold as my overall record is 14-13 and I am in danger of dropping to .500 this week which is why I have brought out what I’ll call this point on: The Failsafe Machine.
In the past whenever I have hit bad streaks like this there has been one stand by that works about half the time to get me out of my slump. The game I am going to pick this week is the Bears & Lions as I have Orton and the Bears D in the fantasy world and am excited to see Drew Stanton start for the Lions as he has returned from his 2-3 year sabbatical. The spread is -12.5 and if the machine gives me tails I am going for the Bears, Heads for the Lions.
Its heads so we are taking the Lions +12.5 this week. Should be an interesting game and hopefully the Failsafe Machine will come through and get my picks back on track. As you might have seen from my picks last year I’d rather fall into this slump midyear than at the end of the year as I subsequently picked the Giants to not only lose but not even cover every single game they played in the Playoffs. I definitely should have brought out the Failsafe last year after Wildcard Weekend but hindsight is 20/20. Good luck this week, I know I’ll need some with that dog of a pick up there.
The following teams are on bye this week: Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback Rankings Week 9
1. Kurt Warner At St. Louis Rams
2. Jay Cutler Vs. Miami Dolphins
3. Kyle Orton Vs. Detroit Lions
4. Peyton Manning Vs. New England Patriots
5. Donovan McNabb At Seattle Seahawks
6. Matt Schaub At Minnesota Vikings
7. Eli Manning Vs. Dallas Cowboys
8. Aaron Rodgers At Tennessee Titans
9. Ben Roethlisberger At Washington Redskins
10. Chad Pennington At Denver Broncos
11. Marc Bulger Vs. Arizona Cardinals
12. Brett Favre At Buffalo Bills
No one expected Kurt Warner to be on top of the fantasy world but right now he’s looking like money provided he stays healthy. Kurt Warner has over 2,000 yards and 14 touchdowns in 7 games and faces the Rams D which averages giving up over 28 points and ranks near the bottom of the league in every category. Cutler’s finger is better so he should be back to his old form. Orton & Schaub both have been very hot and face pass defenses that should be easy to score against. Pennington/Favre/Bulger are riskier starts but I don’t see any extremely favorable match up (maybe Garrard V. Cinci) to knock any of them out of the top 12 this week as I think all 3 have at least a decent fantasy showing for your team.
Running Back Rankings Week 9
1. Adrian Peterson Vs. Houston Texans
2. Brian Westbrook At Seattle Seahawks
3. Michael Turner At Oakland Raiders
4. Stephen Jackson Vs. Arizona Cardinals
5. Matt Forte Vs. Detroit Lions
6. Earnest Graham At Kansas City Chiefs
7. Maurice Jones-Drew Ar Cincinnati Bengals
8. Marion Barber III At New York Giants
9. Ronnie Brown At Denver Broncos
10. Chris Johnson Vs. Green Bay Packers
11. Clinton Portis* Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
*Portis is listed as questionable and also faces a tough run D in the Steelers if he can go but has been on fire so hard to sit him if he’s a go.
12. Brandon Jacobs Vs. Dallas Cowboys
13. Marshawn Lynch Vs. New York Jets
14. Lendale White Vs. Green Bay Packers
15. Joseph Addai Vs. New Englanf Patriots
16. Willie Parker At Washington Redskins
17. Willis McGahee (McClain/Rice) At Cleveland Browns
18. Steve Slaton At Minnesota Vikings
19. Ryan Grant At Tennessee Titans
20. Thomas Jones At Buffalo Bills
21. Kevin Faulk/B. Green-Ellis At Indianapolis Colts
22. Justin Fargas Vs. Atlanta Falcons
23. Michael Pittman Vs. Miami Dolphins
24. Tim Hightower At St. Louis Rams
Both Peterson (130 yards & 1 score vs. the Bears) and Westbrook are coming off great performances ( 209 total yards and 2 TD’s for Westbrook) and should continue to dominate against 2 weaker run defenses this week. Turner should have a good game against the Raiders despite not being at home and Steven Jackson appears to be healthy and good to go this week. Barber is fantasy player hurt by Romo not being behind center. Against a tougher Giants D there’s a good chance they contain him as the Cowboys high octane offense doesn’t seem to run well without Tony Romeo behind the wheel.
Wide Receivers Week 9
1. Andre Johnson At Minnesota Vikings
2. Larry Fitzgerald At St. Louis Rams
3. Brandon Marshall Vs. Miami Dolphins
4. Anquan Boldin At St. Louis Rams
5. Reggie Wayne* Vs. New England Patriots
* Reggie Wayne is listed as questionable due to his knee injury. My bet is that he’ll be a 50/50 game time decision.
6. Lee Evans Vs. New York Jets
7. Roddy White At Oakland Raiders
8. Greg Jennings At Tennessee Titans
9. Calvin Johnson At Chicago Bears
10. Randy Moss At Indianapolis Colts
11. Bernard Berrian Vs. Houston Texans
12. Plaxico Burress Vs. Dallas Cowboys
13. Santana Moss Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
14. Laveranues Coles At Buffalo Bills
15. Braylon Edwards Vs. Baltimore Ravens
16. Jerricho Cotchery At Buffalo Bills
17. Terrell Owens At New York Giants
18. DeSean “Premature Celebration” Jackson At Seattle Seahawks
19. Donnie Avery Vs. Arizona Cardinals
20. Hines Ward At Washington Redskins
21. Eddie Royal Vs. Miami Dolphins
22. Steve Breaston At St. Louis Rams
23. Dwayne Bowe Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
24. Wes Welker At Indianapolis Colts
Johnson gets top billing this week because his last 4 games he has been on firewith 593 yards and two touchdowns. The Vikes rank 20th against the pass and a healthy Johnson should mean another big game. The Cardinals “posse” of receivers also have a sweet match up against the 26th ranked D vs. the pass in the Rams. The rest of the receivers pretty much are up or down based on their match ups except for TO. Since Romo has been out Owens only has 64 yards and no scores but I do feel is capable of breaking out even if it has to be a short pass where he does the rest with his YAC. Still Johnson has been a disappointment and TO has been one of the main beneficiaries of his play, but if I had him I’d still start him just in case its one of those games you need the popcorn for.
Tight End Rankings Week 9
1. Dallas Clark Vs. New England Patriots
2. Owen Daniels At Minnesota Vikings
3. Tony Gonzalez Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Chris Cooley Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Jason Witten* At New York Giants
*Witten might not play due to his broken rib but as you know from the video to the right Witt is pretty tough so I’d watch the injury reports but have a back up ready just in case.
6. Greg Olsen Vs. Detroit Lions
7. John Carlson Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
8. Kellen Winslow Vs. Baltimore Ravens
9. Heath Miller At Washington Redskins
10. Bo Scaife Vs. Green Bay Packers
11. Benjamin Watson At Indianapolis Colts
12. Zach Miller Vs. Atlanta Falcons
Even if Witt were a 100% there’s a good chance I would have ranked Dallas Clark in front of him as it seems like Manning is giving Clark a lot of attention as Harrison has not been the staple receiver we were used to from the past. Harrison is capable of a big game but also capable of getting shut out. Clark has 15 catches for 170+ yards and 2 touchdowns and looks in total sync with Manning. He also won’t have to worry about hard hitting safety Rodney Harrison when he’s venturing over the middle. He’s definitely set up for another big game although predicting that for tight ends is always tons of fun.
Defense/Special Teams Week 9
1. Chicago Bears Vs. Detroit Lions
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Kansas City Chiefs
3. New York Giants Vs. Dallas Cowboys
4.. Jacksonville Jaguars At Cincinnati Bengals
5. Baltimore Ravens At Cleveland Browns
6. Philadelphia Eagles At Seattle Seahawks
7. Tennessee Titans Vs. Green Bay Packers
8. Pittsburgh Steelers At Washington Redskins
9. Buffalo Bills Vs. New York Jets
10. Atlanta Falcons At Oakland Raiders
11. Minnesota Vikings Vs. Houston Texans
12. Green Bay Packers At Tennessee Titans
While the Bucs have quite a resume this year (15 ppg allowed 2nd best in the NFL) and KC may be without Larry Johnson however still like the Bears D & special teams against a Lions offense without Kitna and Roy Williams. The Bears secondary had plenty of time to heal up on their bye and should be able to not just dominate but also a very good chance to score again on defense (they scored twice on D week 7). The Giants also should have a good Sunday against Brad Johnson at QB and should add to their pretty impressive sack total for the year (26). I do worry about the Vikings & Bills this week as we know every once in awhile #4 is capable of going crazy racking up fantasy yards and scores and the Vikes are going up against one of the hottest offenses right now in the Texans led by Schaub/Johnson/Slaton who have made a sweet tandem since Slaton got the starting gig.
October 28th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Its Week Nine of the NFL season and the Colts are 7-0 and looking unstoppable. They’ve played some close games but look very dominant as they have defeated some good teams and don’t look like they are going to slow down anytime soon. Definitely looks like a Super Bowl is possible despite so early in the season. Meanwhile the lowly Titans are 2-5 as Vince Young looks decent starting in his rookie year but the defense has let them down as well as Travis Henry who has turned out to be a pretty weak free agent aquisition.
Fast forward 2 years and its a totally different story. The Colts are 3-4 and struggling on offense as well as on defense. And the Titans have Kerry Collins and perhaps the best defense in the NFL leading them to a 7-0 record while Vince Young is on the sidelines due to some issues he had from earlier in the season. Lendale White & rookie Chris Johnson are tearing up the field with the 4th best rushing attack in the NFL, and while the Super Bowl sounds like a stretch, I always favor a team in the playoffs with a great D as opposed to a great offense and a bad D (like the Broncos for example). Its still way too early but Jeff Fisher has done a great job in Tennessee and with their win over the Colts have convinced me they are not just products of a weak schedule and are a legit contender for the top crown this year.
As for free agents this week its another I’m not crazy about as we saw some new players emerge but none I see hanging around our fantasy scoring leaders. If you really need a player to shore up for an injured player or a bad bye week it might be worth grabbing a Weaver but this week I’m “sifting through the trash” again to see if some castaways can make their 2nd half comeback and make me look like a genius for grabbing them when I did.
Marc Bulger is one name I am targeting as the Rams seem to have new life under new coach Jim Haslett and Bulger looks like a suitable backup fantasy QB for now. Tyler Thigpen had a nice game but I doubt you see much more of that this year as there’s a reason he was behind Brodie Croyle & Damon Huard on the Chiefs depth chart to start the year. Seneca Wallace also put up some numbers but again if Hasselbeck is garbage this year I don’t expect Wallace to be any better. If you like to gamble Shaun Hill is being thrown in there to start for the Niners but I’m not very high on any Niner besides Gore. I’m also skeptical of 100+ yard receiving fullbacks as Leonard Weaver showed us just how bad the Niners D can be. Weaver had only 97 total yards all year before his 129 total yard 2 touchdown day. I think he is a perfect example of a one week wonder but if you are in desperate need and have no better options (perhaps someone forgot a Dominic Rhodes, Mewelde Moore, or a Deuce McAllister on the wire) then maybe grab him and hope Weaver catches lightning in a bottle again.
It all depends on your league as every league is different but take a few minutes and make sure no one threw out a perfectly good player down on his luck with some potential to shine for the rest of the year. I’d rather take a risk on a Bulger than pick up a Weaver or a Bronco running back and get mad everytime I see their game and the wrong guy gets all the touches as if Shanahan knows which back of his you are relying on for a victory.
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:06 am
After slumping for ther last two weeks I am only taking one game this week to try and break this cycle and keep me above .500 for the year no matter what (14-12). I’m going with a team with a good, solid, fundamental defense, and a very solid running game and a passing game that is developing pretty nicely. Trent Edwards is back and healthy as he almost posted 300 yards against SD and I expect a decent game from him and of course I expect Marshawn Lynch and their defense which is better than their numbers to carry the Bills (-1.5) over the Dolphins. The Fins have shown a capability to defeat some good teams this year (Chargers, Patriots) but have lost to some mediocre to bad teams as well (Ravens, Jets, Texans, Cardinals) and the Bills have shown us they are not a fluke as they are now 5-1 and have defeated their own fair share of good teams (Jaguars & Chargers) and would be undeafeated if not for that hiccup against Kurt Warner where he took their secondary (who was missing its best cover corner) to school. With my current luck the Bills probably win 17-16, but I like them this Sunday as I see Lynch & the D coming through for them in a close game even if they get a large early lead because Jauron is so conservative.
I also like a team on Monday Night as long as that high underdog number hangs around (+4) but I’ll go through that match up in the wrap up article if that line doesn’t fall down to 3 as I fear it will.
The following teams are on bye this week: Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback Rankings Week 8
1. Drew Brees Vs. San Diego Chargers — Brees has Colston back but has lost Bush who was a nice option and provided many yards for Brees thanks to his YAC however Brees has been the most consistent QB this year as he averages over 315 yards per game and has 12 touchdowns compared to his 7 picks. It will be interesting as he plays his former team in London but the Chargers have struggled to get going this year and they currently rank dead last in the NFL against the pass.
2. Donovan McNabb Vs. Atlanta Falcons – McNabb should have Westbrook (and Kevin Curtis) back and should have a good game against the Falcons who rank 26th vs the pass. McNabb averages 260+ yards per game & had 8 touchdowns and 3 picks in 6 games.
3. Matt Schaub Vs. Cincinnati Bengals — Schaub continues to be red hot (953 yards & 6 scores last 3 games played) and the Bengals defense really hasn’t been able to stop anyone this year.
4. Peyton Manning At Tennessee Titans — This should be a very tough match up for Manning as the Titans only average giving up 11 points per game but as Manning showed us against the Ravens he is definitely capable of putting up some great numbers against the tough defenses in the league. This should be a very interesting match up but if I owned Manning I’d hesitate to bench him unless I had a real solid play behind him.
5. Philip Rivers At New Orleans Saints — As you may know Rivers is not my fave but he should be able to put up some good numbers against a mediocre at best Saints defense. Rivers has just under 1,700 yards and 16 touchdowns already this year making him a good start with this match up.
6. Kurt Warner At Carolina Panthers — A tougher D but Warner win or lose has been putting up some great numbers (1708 yards, 12 TD’s, 5 picks in 6 games). Warner prbably will have Anquan Boldin back meaning he’ll have 3 reliable targets (Fitz, Boldin,& Breaston) to throw to. The Panthers do rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass but I see them limiting Warner from having a great game not a good game.
7. Jake Delhomme Vs. Arizona Cardinals — The Cards rank 20th vs. the pass and since Jake has gotten Steve Smith back that offense is looking very potent with great balance on the ground and through the air. Minus his bad game (0 TD’s 3 INT’s) against the Bucs Delhomme is averaging 2 scores per week with 240+ yards per game his last 4 outings.
8. Brett Favre Vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Favre has struggled these last 2 weeks against some lesser defenses (under 200 yards each game with 4 picks total and only 1 TD) but he did just throw 6 TD’s 3 games ago and has 13 on the year making me think he is overdue for another big fantasy performance against the Chiefs who give up over 400 yards and nearly 4 touchdowns per game.
Other QB’s Worth A Good Look: Ben Roethlisberger Vs. New York Giants, Trent Edwards At Miami Dolphins, David Garrard Vs. Cleveland Browns, Jason Campbell At Detroit Lions, Eli Manning At Pittsburgh Steelers.
Running Back Rankings Week 8
1. Clinton Portis At Detroit Lions — The Lions have been unable to stop anyone on the ground giving up 167+ yards on the ground per game. Portis has also been red hot his last 4 games with 570 yards and 4 touchdowns. he has a minor shin injury but should be fine and poised for another big game.
2. Brian Westbrook Vs. Atlanta Falcons – Westbrook is nursing a few broken ribs but it looks like he is good enough to play according to reports. The Falcons rank 20th vs the rush but Westbrook has nearly 300 total yards and 6 TD’s in his 4 games he’s played this year and is tough to bench if he’s healthy enough to play.
3. Chris Johnson Vs. Indianapolis Colts — The Colts rank 28th vs. the run and Johnson just burned KC for 168 yards and a score (over 8 yards per carry). As I mentioned last week his biggest hurdle is than Lendale White gets more touches including all the goal line carries.
4. Frank Gore Vs. Seattle Seahawks — Even as the Niners struggle Gore has been a beacon of consistency as he has 535 rush yards, 246 receiving yards, & 5 touchdowns in 7 games. The Seahawks rank 21st against the rush but 29th in points allowed as they allow over 4 touchdowns per game on average meaning Gore may be poised for a very big fantasy day.
5. Steve Jackson At New England Patriots — The Rams seem like a new team since Haslett took over and Jackson after a slow start is really rolling now as he has 767 total yards and 4 touchdowns in 6 games. He does have a slightly strained quad muscle so watch the injury reports but it sounds very minor so far. The Pats are still a good D in my opinion but definitely aren’t as strong as they used to be and now have lossed veteran safety Harrison for the year (ranked 19th vs. the rush).
6. Steve Slaton Vs. Cincinnati Bengals — Slaton has been very reliable since becoming the starting back for the Texans as he has 486 total yards & 5 touchdowns in his last 5 games and Cinci is ranked 27th in the league against the run.
7. Lendale White Vs. Indianapolis Colts — Tough to rank White this high as he loses so many carries to Johnson however he should be guaranteed to find the end zone against the Colts and have a similar day but lesser day as to what he did against the Chiefs (149 yards, 3 TD’s). White has 8 TD’s on the year and the Colts can’t stop anyone on the ground
8. Thomas Jones Vs. Kansas City Chiefs — Jones quietly (more due to being in Favre’s shadow I think) has 538 total yards and 4 TD’s in 6 games played and he faces the worst run defense in the league in the KC Chiefs who last week gave up over 300 rush yards last week.
9. Marshawn Lynch At Miami Dolphins — Lynch has 513 total yards and 5 touchdowns in 6 games and faces the Fins D who ranks 12th against the rush. Not the best match up but not a bad match up either.
10. Marion Barber III Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — The Bucs are a bad match up for a runner as they rank 10th against the rush and 4th in points allowed however I see Brad Johnson and the Cowboys offense looking better and scoring 2 or 3 touchdowns despite the tough D and Barber having a decent fantasy day.
11. Ladanian Tomlinson At New Orleans Saints — LT definitely has not been himself with this toe injury but still has nearly 600 yards and 4 TD’s this season and faces the Saints who rank 16th against the rush.
12. Willis McGahee Vs. Oakland Raiders — The Raiders are 24th against the run but its tough to predict who on the Ravens will show up for a good fantasy day. McGahee looked healthy last week but he has burned mein the past so be careful if you start him here as I would not be at all surprised to see McClain or Rice steal the day somehow.
13. Maurice Jones-Drew Vs. Cleveland Browns — MJD hasn’t looked the greatest this year but is coming off a great performance against the Broncos before his bye (148 total yards & 2 TD’s) and will be facing the weak Browns defense.
14. Michael Turner At Philadelphia Eagles — Turner will struggle a little against this tougher run defense at home (9th vs. the run) but Turner is too good to bench here as he has over 600 total yards and 5 touchdowns in 6 games.
15. Ronnie Brown Vs. Buffalo Bills — Brown again looked pretty normal last week but he’s tough to bench as we know he is capable of 5 TD’s in one game when he is on. The Bills have a solid defense and are 15th against the run. Since getting healthy Brown averages just under 100 total yards per game and including his passing TD has 7 TD’s in his last 4 games.
Other RB’s Worth A Good Look: Earnest Graham At Dallas Cowboys, Jonathon Stewart/DeAngelo Williams Vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sammy Morris Vs. St. Louis Rams, Mewelde Moore/Willie Parker Vs. New York Giants, Jamal Lewis At Jacksonville Jaguars, Fred Taylor Vs. Cleveland Browns, Julius Jones At San Francisco 49ers, Deuce McAllister Vs. San Diego Chargers, Brandon Jacobs At Pittsburgh Steelers.
Wide Receiver Rankings Week 8
1. Steve Smith Vs. Arizona Cardinals — In his 5 games back after the suspension Smith has averaged just under 100 yards per game and has 2 touchdowns. I expect him to have a big day against the Cards rank 20th against the pass and as Favre showed us a few weeks back are capable of giving up a few touchdowns through the air.
2. Andre Johnson Vs. Cincinnati Bengals –The Bengals rank high against the pass but primarily because they are so bad against the run as they allow an average of 26 points per game. Johnson and Schaub have been on fire lately as he has 450 yards and 2 touchdowns his last 3 games.
3. Santana Moss At Detroit Lions — The Lions look like a team with no hope and rank 31st against the pass. While the Skins passing game at times has looked pretty bad, Moss has done pretty well (except for the goose egg he laid in Philly) as he has 33 receptions, 518 yards and 4 scores in 7 games played.
4. Larry Fitzgerald At Carolina Panthers — Fitz will most likely have Boldin back this week to compete with him and the Panthers are tough against the pass (2nd in the NFL) but Fitz should have a decent day as he has been consistent all year (546 yards & 5 TD’s in 6 games).
5. Reggie Wayne At Tennessee Titans — A very tough D but Wayne struggled last week and should bounce back despite the match up. Wayne has had good performances against the Ravens & the Bears (back when their secondary was healthy) and should have a good game.
6. Lee Evans At Miami Dolphins – The Fins rank 27th vs. the pass & Evans has 521 yards and 3 scores in 6 games.
7. Plaxico Burress At Pittsburgh Steelers — A tough match up for Eli & Plaxico but since his suspension Plaxico has scored in each game back and I see him continuing that trend.
8. Terrell Owens Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — The Bucs only give up about 15 points per game but I see TO getting some yardage this game as Johnson gets more used to throwing to his great receivers and makes some better throws than last week.
9. Randy Moss Vs. St Louis Rams — I wtill have some doubts on Cassel but it seems like he is getting better making Moss again a must start as they scored 2 tgouchdowns last week.
10. Calvin Johnson Vs. Washington Redskins – While I doubt the Skins give up a 96 yards TD I do think the Lions will be throwing the ball a ton to Johnson for the rest of the season.
11. Hines Ward Vs. New York Giants — Ward has 5 touchdowns and has outshined Holmes so far this year and has been a solid fantasy start all year even against the tougher defenses.
12. Laveranues Coles Vs. Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs give up nearly 28 points a game and 400+ yards per game and favre & Coles while not very consistent have been capable of putting up some great numbers. #4 might have a big day meaning Coles & Cotchery should as well.
13. Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston At Carolina Panthers — I expect Boldin to return making Breaston a very risky start. However if Boldin doesn’t go Breaston has showed us he can put up some numbers opposite Fitzgerald (301 yards & 1 score in 3 starts). One of them will be a good start this Sunday.
14. Santonio Holmes Vs. New York Giants — Holmes started out the year slow but has shown some glimpses of the receiver fantasy owners loved last year. I like him as a start again this week as I think he continues to bring his numbers closer to last season’s as the season progresses.
15. DeSean “Premature Celebration” Jackson Vs. Atlanta Falcons — The Eagles get WR Kevin Curtis back but Jackson has been a playmaker and I still think a viable fantasy option despite more of McNabb’s receivers getting healthy.
Other WR’s Worth A Good Look: TJ Houshmandzedah At Houston Texans, Roddy White At Philadelphia Eagles, Braylon Edwards At Jacksonville Jaguars, Wes Welker Vs. St. Louis Rams, Roy Williams Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Marques Colston Vs. San Diego Chargers, Jerricho Cotchery Vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Dwayne Bowe At New York Jets, Vincent Jackson At New Orleans Saints.
Tight End Rankings Week 8
1. Jason Witten Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Definitely a tougher match up but I still rank Witt as #1 as he still is getting plenty of throws and I expect a much better game from Brad Johnson who looked very rusty last week. Witt had 6 receptions and 44 yards but was targeted even more by Johnson who wasn’t very accurate in his first start. If you league wieghs TD’s much more than yards then Gates woiuld rank higher as Witt only has 2 on the year but if you’re looking for receptions and yards and a possible score Witt is the man as he has 45 catches and 541 yards on the year.
2. Antonio Gates At New Orleans Saints — Gates only has just over 300 yards this season but he does have 4 touchdowns and has a very good chance to score against a weak Saints secondary.
3. Chris Cooley At Detroit Lions — Cooley has had 2 mediocre games his last 2 but he has 377 yards and 1 score this year and the Lions just made Owen Daniels look like Jason Witten so Cooley should be due for a big game.
4. Tony Gonzalez At New York Jets — With Croyle out again it looks like Thigpen is back but Gonzo has seemed to perform decently no matter who is back there. Gonzo has 290 yards and 2 touchdowns this year and despite being unhappy in KC he is doing pretty well considering the conditions.
5. Owen Daniels Vs. Cincinnati Bengals — The Texans passing game is hot right now as Daniels had 2 touchdowns last game (his first 2 of the year) and has brought his yardage total up to 374 yards and the Bengals D should not be able to slow them down much.
6. Dallas Clark At Tennessee Titans — Clark has had a few hot games since coming back from injury. He has 15 catches and 179 yards his last 3 starts and despite the match up is worth a risk to start at TE.
7. Heath Miller Vs. New York Giants — Miller has had a quiet season so far (188 yards & 1 TD) but has always been a red zone target for Big Ben and is a decent start.
8. John Carlson At San Francisco 49ers – Its unknown if Hasselback will return but Carlson has done okay without him as he now has a touchdown in each of his last two games.
Others Worth A Good Look: LJ Smith Vs. Atlanta Falcons, Bo Scaife Vs. Indianapolis Colts, Benjamin Watson vs St. Louis Rams, Todd Heap Vs. Oakland Raiders.
Defense/Special Teams Week 8
1. Baltimore Ravens Vs. Oakland Raiders – The Raiders have shown some quick flashes on mediocrity this season (such as their win over Brett & his Jets last week) however the Ravens should make this a very long day for them in Baltimore. The Ravens rank first against the run in the NFL and average giving up less than 17 points per game. This will be a big test for JaMarcus Russell but I’m thinking he doesn’t do very well and the Ravens D racks up some fantasy points.
2. Buffalo Bills At Miami Dolphins — The Bills D re-emerged last week after its hiccup against the Cards to shut down LT & the Chargers holding them to only 14 points. It will be interesting to see how the ultra-conservative Dick Jauron handles “The Wildcat” formation but I don’t think any Dolphin except maybe Ronnie Brown has much success Sunday.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Dallas Cowboys — I must preface this ranking with the fact that I believe Brad Johnson plays much better than he did last week but the Bucs only allow just over 2 touchdowns (15.8 avg 4th best in the NFL) and are solid against the run and the pass. I think the Cowboys score more than last week but I think the Bucs contain them and get a few turnovers & sacks for a decent performance.
4. Washington Redskins At Detroit Lions — The Skins bounced back after their loss to the Rams to beat the Browns and should be able to contain the Lions who are now without Roy Williams and Jon Kitna. The Skins rank 6th in the league in yards allowed and really just need to contain Calvin Johnson to stop the Lions.
5. New York Jets Vs. Kansas City Chiefs — While the Jets D is pretty mediocre the Chiefs are in bad shape as it sounds like Larry Johnson might be suspended even further due to his off the field activities and beyond him this offense is pretty weak.
6. Tennessee Titans Vs. Indianapolis Colts — A tough start for one of the best if not the best D in the NFL right now. The Colts looked pretty bad against the Pack but lit up a better D a week before in the Ravens. While I never like to bank on Peyton Manning struggling I do like the fact that the Titans powerfull running game should destroy the Colts terrible run D and help keep their defense off the field as much.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. New York Giants – A tougher match up for the Steelers as the Giants offense is pretty well balanced but Pitt is too good a D to bench as they should give up some points but also gets some sacks and turnovers.
8. Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons have looked pretty goos especially considering having a rookie QB but the Eagles are a high pressure defense and should give Matty Ice(Matt Ryan) a decent challange. I do think Turner struggles as well as the Eagles rank 9th best in the NFL vs. the run.
9. New York Giants At Pittsburgh Steelers – I don’t think this D rattles Big Ben as it seems impossible to really knock him off his game but the Steelers are fighting some injury issues and I expect the Giants to have a decent fantasy game with at least a few sacks and a turnover.
10. Houston Texans Vs. Cincinnati Bengals — The Texans D is pretty bad but at the same time the Bengals offense has become nearly the worst in the lague and even in Palmer does play through his elbow injury I don’t see them improving much.
Other D’s Worth A Good Look: New England Patriots Vs. St. Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers Vs. Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Cleveland Browns
And remember as always if you see Matthew Berry on your television screen trying to spread his fantasy football ignorance, run away.